Combustibles: ¿bajan o no?

Si el precio por barril del petróleo esta por los 30 dólares, ¿porque no baja el precio de sus combustibles derivados? Parecería lógico que deban bajar los precios de la gasolina, gas licuado, diesel y demás derivados dado que el componente principal, el petróleo crudo, ha bajado significativamente de precios, y así que los productos cuyos costes dependan significativamente del combustible (alimentos y transporte) se reduzcan también. Esto sería cierto si estuviéramos en un mercado competitivo y libre de subsidios estatales, pero como no es así…


Tal vez muchos no sepan que el precio del petróleo desde que empezó a subir a niveles no pensados antes (más alla de los 80 dólares) comenzó a ser subsidiado por el gobierno peruano para evitar que la población sienta la verdadera alza de su precio y, así, conllevar a funestas consecuencias sociales. Lo cierto es que a pesar de lo elevado que estaba el galón de combustible, hubiera estado peor si el gobierno no hubiera actuado. Pero como siempre, nada es gratis, entonces se creo el fondo de estabilización de combustibles, cuyo sistema para reducir los shocks de los precios del crudo fue explicado en este blog en un anterior post, que sería bueno que revisen para entender algunas cuestiones que hasta ahora no quedan claras:


Pero, ¿cómo funciona el fondo de estabilización de precios de los combustibles? En un principio, en el 2004, la primera política que se aplico para reducir el precio de los combustibles y que no acareé malestares en los consumidores, fue reducir el impuesto selectivo al consumo, que en el caso de los combustibles es un porcentaje fijo. Esta medida fue desestimada debido a la creciente alza del precio del crudo, ya en ese entonces. El fondo de estabilización nace en el 2005 con el supuesto de que el precio del crudo aumentaría, pero también se reduciría; entonces se conformó con un aporte inicial del gobierno (s/. 60 millones), y después se conformaría con aportes de productores e importadores efectúen a los precios de los productos, dependiendo de si los precios de referencia de los combustibles se encuentran por encima o por debajo de la franja de precios establecida para cada uno de los productos. Esta franja es elaborada por el MEF, asumiendo los precios que pública el Osinerg, siendo esta franja cambiada muchas veces. En este caso, el precio de paridad (precio de referencia actual del crudo) supere el techo de la franja, el fondo subsidia a las refinerías, en caso contrario, el precio de paridad este por menos del piso de la franja, las refinerías tendrán que aportar al excedente al fondo. En un principio, se suponía un fondo sin intervención de fondos públicos, pero al ser el Estado su fuente de garantía, se hace más acorde técnicamente a un financiamiento directo.


La razón de porque no bajan los precios de los combustibles es simple, dado que el petróleo esta tan barato, ahora es el momento en que el Estado recupera los fondos que ha subsidiado durante varios meses. Tal vez esto parezca injusto para muchas personas y crean que el fondo deba desaparecer, pero esto es renegar del pasado, cuando el fondo fue “bonachon” y ahora solo este pasando la factura de subsidiar. No es justo ni injusto en ningún caso, tan solo es necesario.


Al parecer, existirá una tendencia a que los precios se reduzcan, medida que seguramente se apoyará en la reducción de la franja inferior del fondo, para así recaudar menos, algo que es necesario para amilanar los efectos de la “crisis” y mantener la estabilidad de los hogares. Recuerden que nada es gratis, y es hora es empezar a ajustarnos.

 

¿… y la economía?

 

El petróleo no llegó a superar los 200 dólares, y eso ejemplifica cuan difícil es el poder de predicción de los economistas. Muchas veces sólo nos guiamos por percepciones y dejamos de lado los modelos matemáticos (sea el método que utilicen), apoyado por la compleja volatilidad de muchas variables, en este caso el precio del petróleo que tiene un componente especulativo muy fuerte. No es mi intención defender la posición de quienes aseguraban que el petróleo se iba por las nubes, a pesar que nunca estuve de acuerdo con esa posición, pero tampoco percibí que llegaría a niveles como los actuales. Lo cierto, es que el 2008 nos deja una gran lección para los economistas, muchos retos por cumplir y algunas cosas que reformular. Feliz año 2009 para todos y que la “crisis” no los detenga.

 

47 comments:

Saludo el hecho de que te animes a publicar.

Trato de entenderte en la mención que haces en tu perfil "(...) crear información de Economía. ¿Cifras y teorías? No, Economía es mucho más que eso, es la vida misma. ¡Explora!"

La "vida" es muy amplia, muy compleja, las racionalidades diversas de los individuos, su contexto institucional (constumbres, etc.) son distintos en cada sociedad, es cierto que ser requiere explorar.

Pero ...

Si no hay teorías y no hay cifras que permitan contrastar empíricamente las relaciones de causalidad que se derivan de las propociones teóricas, entonces ¿cómo piensas "crear información de Economía"? ¿ cómo sugieres entender las diversas realidades exploradas?

Saludos

21 de febrero de 2009, 23:22  

Saludo su presencia en la Internet y la invitación a publicar. Ojalá cada colega Economista tuviera su propio blog.
Respecto a los precios de los combustibles le pido reflexionar en dos temas.
1.- ¿se subsidió realmente los combustibles?. Si fue así, no tendríamos porque pagar la factura ahora que el precio internacional ha bajado. Sería como si a los beneficiarios del subsidio de 100 Nuevos Soles por su extrema pobreza se estuviera esperando para cobrarles. El subsidio no se recupera. El Fondo de estabilización, inoportunamente aplicado en el perú, al querer recuperar lo compensado a las refinerías se convierte en un mero préstamo.
2.- Los precios de los derivados del petróleo crudo tienen algo que ver con los de sus derivados pero no están en función directa necesariamente. Y eso porque no se aplican estructuras de costos a los precios finales de los derivados, sino que se aplican criterios como el de paridad de importación que por lo demás deberíamos rechazar en los casos de combustibles que más bien exportamos como las gasolinas y los petróleos residuales.
Felicitaciones.
Econ. César Bedón Rocha
reg. CEL 02939

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